Photo / Tim Greenway
Bill Caron, CEO of MaineHealth, the largest health care system in northern New England, says Maine’s aging population creates demand on both the workforce and service side of the business.
Updated: January 13, 2020
2020 Economic Forecast
20 on '20: Health care may be entering a critical ‘convergence’ of trends
By William Hall
For Maine’s health care industry, a perfect storm may loom on the horizon.
That’s the concern of Bill Caron, CEO of MaineHealth, the largest health care system in northern New England.
Like other fields, health care in Maine faces a growing labor shortage. In 2020, there will be fewer working-age Mainers available to staff hospitals, clinics and medical offices. Caron himself is an example; he plans to retire at the end of the year.
But the state’s demographics will create an additional challenge for health care. Already the oldest in the U.S., on average, residents of Maine are getting older and will need more medical help.
“If you look at demand, that’s going to continue to grow in 2020. The older age cohorts will require more services,” says Caron, a 2019 Mainebiz Business Leader of the Year.
The double whammy of increasing demand for health care and a shrinking pool of people to supply it may reach a critical phase in the year ahead.
“We’re almost in the middle of the two trends converging,” Caron says.
As a result, he sees two other trends gathering strength. Health care costs will again be on the rise, and consolidation within the industry will continue.
One cost driver is the shortage of nurses in Maine. While the state’s colleges are expanding nursing education and making it more affordable, Caron notes, it may not be enough. “It’ll help, but the demand is so great [for nurses] that it creates wage pressure,” he says.
However, the lack of labor affects every aspect of health care, “from top to bottom,” Caron adds. The shortage is also one reason medical practices and other providers are teaming up with large systems like MaineHealth.
Recruiting physicians, especially in rural parts of the state, is increasingly difficult, according to Caron. “The simple reality is, not enough are being trained and not enough are being attracted to Maine,” he says.
And while advanced practice clinicians, such as physician assistants, are a partial solution to the shortage, they too may not be enough. Increasingly, practices will turn to larger health care providers in order to gain access to physicians who can provide off-hour coverage, additional services and necessary “clinical scale,” Caron says.
“Physicians will continue to join health care systems, and the systems will continue to grow out of necessity. It’s economics that’s driving that.”
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