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Updated: January 13, 2020 2020 Economic Forecast

20 on '20: Lobster fishery remains strong, but whale regulation looms

Photo / Laurie Schreiber Kristan Porter, president of the Maine Lobstermen’s Association, predicts the fishery will remain stable through 2020 but could experience some upheaval with new rules to protect the North Atlantic right whale.

Maine’s lobster fishing industry faces a new round of potentially drastic modifications to its gear in order to protect the endangered North Atlantic right whale. The industry also grappled this year with a shortage of herring, the fishery’s favored bait.

But the fishery has been generally stable over the past year and is expected to remain so through 2020, says Kristan Porter, president of the Maine Lobstermen’s Association.

“If you’re in a wild-caught fishery, you’re always wondering what the catch will be in the next year, whether it will be early or late, what the price will be, what your expenses are going to be,” he says.

Maine’s lobster fetched $484.5 million in 2018 — the largest share of the overall fishery, which was worth $637.1 million in 2018.

The final numbers aren’t in yet for 2019 landings. But lobsters were slow to arrive July through September, and it’s expected landings will show a decrease from 2018’s 119.6 million pounds, although there’s some expectation that strong catches October through December could make up for the lower summertime landings, he says.

“As a state, the catch will probably be down some,” Porter says. “But it’s not going to be drastic ... We’re coming off a series of record catches. I don’t think anyone thinks we can break records year after year after year.”

Even if the catch is down, prices are up at least 20% to 25% over 2018, pushed by strong demand.

In 2020, the industry will continue to work with the Maine Lobster Marketing Collaborative to build demand and prices, with a focus on the domestic market, he says.

The industry has its eye on potenial new regulations aimed at protecting right whales. For now, aside from additional markings on gear, the bulk of regulations would not hit in 2020.

“That’s looming,” Porter says. “I don’t know what we can do other than wait and see what the feds propose.” New federal rules in 2021 might require more traps per line in order to reduce the number of vertical lines in the water.

“We’re optimistic for next year,” Porter says. “Like anything, you don’t know what’s going to happen going in, especially in a fishery that’s controlled by Mother Nature. We do the best we can to manage it correctly, but there’s always uncertainty.”

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