Bold predictions for Maine's economy in 2026 span recession risk to practical optimism
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Mainebiz asked business leaders around the state for bold predictions about Maine’s economy in 2026.
Boom, bust or something in between? We asked business leaders around the state for bold predictions about Maine’s economy in 2026.
Forecasts run the gamut from the specter of a recession to a dose of practical optimism from a coffee entrepreneur.
Like a horse-racing handicapper at the track, Keith Luke, Augusta’s economic development director, kicked things off with a colorful sports metaphor.
“The Maine economy in 2026 resembles a disciplined thoroughbred in a stakes race,” he said. “It won’t be flashy out of the gate, but will build momentum as conditions improve down the stretch.”
Patrick Woodcock, president of the Maine State Chamber of Commerce, weighed in with two predictions — the first related to corporate consolidation.
“Mergers in corporate America take off and Maine experiences similar activity, including two major well-known banks announcing a merger in 2026,” he said.
Woodcock also sees more turbulence ahead for Maine's health care sector: “A hospital in rural Maine announces a closure in 2026, catalyzing Maine to accelerate efforts to deploy federal funding to stabilize the rural health care system.”
Here’s what others are expecting in the year ahead.
Workforce, inbound residents & investors
Quincy Hentzel, president and CEO, Portland Regional Chamber of Commerce: “Maine will finally see a meaningful increase in available workers — driven in large part by innovative child care strategies that will open the door for those parents who want to rejoin the workforce, driving economic growth and business productivity.”
Katie Shorey, director of engagement at Live + Work in Maine: “As labor markets rebalance, Maine remains New England’s No. 1 state for inbound movers because people will continue to value place, purpose and balance.”
Mary Ellen Eagan, chair of the Maine Angels group of investors: “As confidence in AI and tech falters, investors will turn to sectors of the innovation economy in which Maine excels: the blue economy, forestry and bioproducts, and med tech. This will bring national attention — and capital — to the entire Maine ecosystem.”
Macroeconomic headwinds & tailwinds
Yellow Light Breen, president and CEO of Maine Development Foundation: “The combined effects of a shrinking U.S. labor force, tariff uncertainty … and underfunded health care systems/job cuts will push the nation and Maine towards recession. But the Fed will move aggressively to engineer a soft landing, and lower interest rates will begin to ‘unstick’ the housing market a bit, which will help.”
Andrew Silsby, president and CEO of Kennebec Savings Bank: “We will have a new Federal Reserve chairman by mid-year 2026 and as a result, both prime pending rate and mortgage rates will drop … and start with a 5 by the end of 2026.”
Garvan D. Donegan, president and CEO of the Central Maine Growth Council: "Despite persistent housing and cost pressures, Maine’s low unemployment and population growth are fueling a structural economic shift from traditional industries toward high-tech, digital and professional sectors, effectively steadying broader economic headwinds and increasing state productivity.”
Justin Lamontagne, managing partner and designated broker at the Dunham Group: “After a wait-and-see response to macroeconomic changes in 2025 … the ‘new normal’ sets up 2026 to be an exceptional bounce-back year for commercial real estate activity."
Upcoming elections
Susan V. Morris, a Maine Angel and honorary consul for Canada in Maine: "The 2026 electoral races in Maine will drive real debates about real issue impacting our state's future."
Food for thought
Andrea Cianchette Maker, president of FocusMaine: “Maine’s aquaculture sector will emerge as a notable contributor to Maine’s food economy, with a growing awareness of its potential as another iconic Maine food source, along the lines of Maine potatoes, blueberries and lobster.”
Kachina Miller, founder and CEO of Watermelon Pie, a Belfast-based recipe-sharing platform, is equally bullish on Maine’s food sector as national movements such as Food as Medicine and the Planetary Health Diet take center stage,
“Maine's robust food economy will seize the moment and become a leader in this space, driving growth for farms, consumer packaged goods companies, food tech and others within our amazing food community,” she said.
Practical optimism
Trying to remain optimistic in a time of great uncertainty, Mary Allen Lindemann of Coffee By Design offered a straightforward outlook as the Portland-based roaster and retailer brews up a brand refresh.
“The authentic will persevere,” she said.
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